Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.019004 0.021556 0.024329 0.027570 0.031255 0.035315 0.040133
2025-05-11 0.014698 0.018128 0.022185 0.027343 0.033737 0.041414 0.051353
2025-05-18 0.012421 0.016214 0.020964 0.027362 0.035774 0.046487 0.061215
2025-05-25 0.010660 0.014573 0.019707 0.026956 0.036958 0.050327 0.069638
2025-06-01 0.009595 0.013654 0.019199 0.027354 0.039095 0.055462 0.080151
2025-06-08 0.008561 0.012624 0.018378 0.027155 0.040275 0.059267 0.089053
2025-06-15 0.007982 0.012161 0.018278 0.027930 0.042868 0.065260 0.101663
2025-06-22 0.007056 0.011073 0.017133 0.026989 0.042733 0.067095 0.108021
2025-06-29 0.006404 0.010333 0.016428 0.026631 0.043420 0.070187 0.116568
2025-07-06 0.005721 0.009473 0.015447 0.025719 0.043095 0.071583 0.122400
2025-07-13 0.005492 0.009325 0.015587 0.026640 0.045854 0.078231 0.137655
2025-07-20 0.005236 0.009106 0.015583 0.027303 0.048212 0.084375 0.152580
2025-07-27 0.005011 0.008927 0.015643 0.028105 0.050924 0.091448 0.170011
2025-08-03 0.004635 0.008448 0.015143 0.027866 0.051751 0.095251 0.181838
2025-08-10 0.004337 0.008083 0.014807 0.027885 0.053036 0.099973 0.195817
2025-08-17 0.004009 0.007629 0.014269 0.027471 0.053451 0.103078 0.206923
2025-08-24 0.003820 0.007422 0.014169 0.027878 0.055475 0.109422 0.225070
2025-08-31 0.003572 0.007078 0.013777 0.027674 0.056263 0.113391 0.238723
2025-09-07 0.003461 0.006993 0.013880 0.028465 0.059125 0.121755 0.262379
2025-09-14 0.003165 0.006513 0.013159 0.027505 0.058271 0.122405 0.269515
2025-09-21 0.002958 0.006196 0.012743 0.027141 0.058632 0.125609 0.282531
2025-09-28 0.002713 0.005780 0.012087 0.026210 0.057685 0.125923 0.289064
2025-10-05 0.002663 0.005773 0.012287 0.027150 0.060932 0.135657 0.318147